Sometimes in life to move forwards we have to look backwards, and an investigation in to the last four European Championships reveals some key trends that punters can use to their advantage.
Accordingly, here are some Euro 2016 betting tips based on the Bet Advisor findings:
Euro 2012 – Spain defeat Italy to Retain their Crown
What was important for punters to note from the Euro 2012 final is that two of the most fancied teams actually reached the pinnacle of the tournament.
As defending champions, and coincidentally being ranked the highest of all competing nations, Spain were seeded number one for the competition; and so we can note that occasionally the bookmakers’ favourites do actually get the job done!
Italy meanwhile were seeded fourth, which tells us that they should have probably reached the semi-finals at best. They overachieved somewhat then, but then again those Italians are famed for going deep into major tournaments thanks to their discipline and well-organised tactical shape.
The other two semi-finalists were Portugal and Germany. The Germans were seeded three so their appearance in the semis came as no surprise, although Portugal were ranked just ninth; which suggests they should have departed the tournament in the round of 16. So once again the European Championship lived up to its reputation for springing a surprise or two by witnessing a shock semi-finalist for the fourth consecutive tournament.
Euro 2008 – Spain Clinch Title with 1-0 Win Over Germany
You could conceivably argue that both Spain and Germany upset the odds in reaching the final of Euro 2008; they certainly did according to the seedings anyway.
Bizarrely, co-hosts Switzerland and Austria were seeded one and two, with defending champions Greece at three. So, the top three seeds were made up of teams unlikely to challenge for the title.
Germany and Spain were seeded 10 and 12 respectively, and this was reflected the tough draw they faced. The Germans had to tackle Croatia, Austria, surprise package Turkey and Portugal just to reach the final, while Spain had to take on the sixth seed Italy as early as the quarter final. It was testament to both teams that they were able to overcome such obstacles.
This time we had not one but two surprise semi-finalists: Russia, seeded 15, and Turkey who were ranked 16. Both of these teams ‘over achieved’ in reaching the last four, and once again tells us that shocks are plentiful in European Championships.
Euro 2004 – Greece Make History in Portugal
The tournament organisers came up with a more effective seeding strategy in 2004….and yet one of the greatest upsets in sporting history still unfolded.
Greece were ranked 19th as part of the seeding coefficient, and as such didn’t stand a chance in hell of winning Euro 2004. Their group alone contained Spain, Portugal and Russia, so they would surely do well to even win a point?
Well, they did much more than that. They defeated Portugal in their opening encounter, took a point from Spain and despite losing to Russia they managed to progress to the knockout phase of the competition via goals scored.
But they wouldn’t progress any further than that, would they? Wrong: they upset the number one seeds, France, in the quarter finals, beat the Czech Republic via a ‘silver goal’ in the semis and memorably defeated Portugal in their own backyard (and for the second time in the tournament) in the final. The Greeks had won their three knockout phase matches all by a 1-0 scoreline to win the first major piece of silverware in their history.
Euro 2000 – France Return to Winner’s Circle
Although they were to be overshadowed by Greece’s heroics four years later, France’s win in 2000 still deserves credit given that they were placed in Pot 2 when the seedings were announced. This meant they would have to tackle Holland, the Czech Republic and Denmark in their group, before knockout stage matches against Spain, Portugal and Italy.
You couldn’t accuse the French of having it easy then, and they truly deserved their victory.
Three of the four semi-finalists came from pot 2, so once again there were shock teams in the last four; following a trend which had begun four years earlier with the Czech Republic’s ascent to the final.
What Have We Learnt?
If the last four European Championships are anything to go by, then we know two things: the best team in the competition usually wins out in the end, and there is generally always a surprise semi-finalist.
As such, we are happy to add France as tournament winner to today’s football betting tips at 4.20, while for potential surprise semi-finalists take a look at Croatia (6.00), Poland (8.00) and Turkey (13.00).